The following are some of the notes I jotted down during my handicapping of today’s MLB card. I am not recommending a play on any of these games. The purpose of these MLB betting tips is to assist you in your decision-making process. These notes may confirm a play you were already considering, or they may make you rethink your position on a game.
MLB Betting Tips: National League
Atlanta at Washington: The Braves averaged 5.8 runs in its nine road night games against lefties, and own the league’s 3rd-best wRC+ against southpaws (120 = 20% above league average). The Nationals averaged 6.3 runs in its seven home night games against lefties. That’s solid offensive output on both sides with the total sitting at 8 1/2.
San Diego at Philadelphia: Perdomo owns a very poor 5.04 xFIP, and the Phillies are 16-8 and average a solid 4.6 runs in its 24 home night games against righties. With my projected line being Phillies -203, the Phillies are a value play if you don’t mind playing heavy chalk.
LA Dodgers at Milwaukee: LA owns a 119 wRC+ against righties, while the Brew Crew owns a 96 wRC+ against lefties. I’ve noticed a very high percentage of winners when one team’s wRC+ is at least 20 points higher than their opponent. Plus, you get Kershaw as your pitcher. But again, you can’t be afraid to lay the heavy lumber.
MLB Betting Tips: American League
Baltimore at Toronto: The host Blue Jays average 4.7 runs in its home day games against righties. They should produce against Alex Cobb and his poor 4.61 xFIP. The Orioles average just 3.4 runs in its 15 road day games against righties (3-12), and they must face Marcus Stroman. Stroman’s solid 3.84 xFIP tells me he is pitching much better than his hefty 5.86 ERA. Stroman has been very unlucky, sporting a very low LOB% of 59.2%. Some positive results should be coming his way in the season’s second half.
Minnesota at Kansas City: I got burned by the Twins in Game 1 of this series yesterday, but the situation warrants another look today. KC is still just 4-19 in home night games against righties, averaging 3.1 runs. And that includes last night’s six-run output. The Twins average 5.2 runs in its road night games against righties, and should produce against Jakob Junis and his 4.55 xFIP. And KC’s bullpen is garbage, and nearly gagged away last night’s game.
Houston at LA Angels: Don’t see any reason to go against JV here. The Houston offense behind him averages 5.6 runs in road night games against righties (15-6), and faces a very hittable Tropeano and his 4.77 xFIP.
MLB Betting Tips: Interleague
NY Mets at NY Yankees: Sonny Gray has been a disappointment for the Yankees, but his 4.23 xFIP tells me he’s been pitching much better than his 5.46 ERA would lead one to believe. The Yankees are 4-0 in home day games against lefties, averaging 5.5 runs. The Bombers own the league’s 2nd-best wRC+ against southpaws at 123 (23% above league average). The Mets are just 4-7 in road day games against righties.
San Francisco at Oakland: Not used to seeing “Mad Bum” as a dog. But the Giants are just 7-15 in road night games against righties, and Cahill owns a very solid 3.19 xFIP. Bumgarner has yet to regain his dominant form, so the price is likely right.
There are many factors that go into my baseball handicapping. I figured I’d share a few of my notes. I hope you found these MLB betting tips useful.