I released four NFL service plays to clients yesterday. We had early action, a mid-afternoon wager, and a huge play on the Sunday night game. When all was said and done, we ended up 2-1-1 for +$270 based on my rating system.
We really should’ve been 3-1, but an absolutely ridiculous roughing the passer penalty on a third down play ended up being the difference between a win and a push. It was a clean hit by all accounts, including former Vice President of Officiating, Mike Pereira. So instead of it being fourth down and Seattle kicking a field goal to make it 13-7, they get a first down and a 10-yard TD pass to make it 17-7.
But, we still ended up with a winning day and with pushes excluded we’re now 12-6 (67%) over the last six weeks in the NFL. We started the season hot, had my worst few NFL weeks ever in mid-season, and have been doing very well in recent weeks. Still determined to have a winning season with two weeks of regular season action plus the entire postseason remaining.
Below are the NFL service plays I released to my clients yesterday, including the analysis as it appeared on their Member page and in emails.
1:00 pm ET
#310 ATLANTA +3 (-115)
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: We cashed a Max Bet on Pittsburgh last Sunday when they pulled away to beat the Bengals, 42-21. I mentioned how the Steelers have shown the tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition. I expect that to be the case in this one. That was a huge win for the Steelers against their division-leading rivals. Now they go out on the road for the final time this season to face a 5-8 non-conference opponent. Can you say “letdown,” especially with their last two games being at home against AFC playoff contender Kansas City and Round 2 against the Bengals? The Falcons may be just 5-8, but they’ve played better in recent weeks and will still win the division by winning their final three games. The Steelers have laid an egg several times this season when coming off a big win and I expect more of the same in this one. Certainly can’t trust them as road chalk in this spot. I’m grabbing the FG with ATLANTA.
1:00 pm ET
#313-314 UNDER 44 Cincinnati at Cleveland
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: The first meeting this season was a Thursday night clash in Cincinnati. The Browns shocked the Bengals, 24-3. I’m expecting another low-scoring game. I expect Cincinnati to lean on the ground attack because: A) Bengals QB Andy Dalton played an absolutely horrible game in that first meeting; and B) Cleveland owns a strong pass defense, but can be had on the ground. Johnny Football gets his first career start in this one. I don’t expect the Browns to ask Manziel to do too much. They ran it 52 times in that first meeting. I don’t see them running it THAT often this time, but I do expect to see playcalling geared a little more toward the ground game. The Bengals have gone Under in five of their six road games this season, while the Browns have gone Under in five straight home contests. Play UNDER.
4:25 pm ET
#329 SAN FRANCISCO +10 (-115)
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: This is a serious “buy low, sell high” spot. The Niners’ stock is at a season-low after losing 24-13 to the Raiders last Sunday. Seattle is looking like the defending champs again after pounding these 49ers 19-3 and then going to Philly and beating the Eagles 24-14. Seattle’s stock is at a season-high. 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh has been money when his team is off back-to-back losses. I don’t think he’ll have to do much motivating after last Sunday’s embarrassing loss to the Raiders and the way they were manhandled in that first Seattle game. I can’t call for the upset, but I expect the 49ers to bring it and they are well worth a shot at this price range. Bet SAN FRANCISCO.
8:30 pm ET
#331 DALLAS +3.5 (-120)
$300 (MAX BET)
NOTE: Whenever we step out like this, I’m going to remind you what “Max Bet” means. It does NOT mean: bet your whole bankroll, bet your rent/mortgage payment, bet the car payment, etc. What it DOES mean is that you should bet 50% more on this play than on a normal play. So, if your normal bet is for $100, then this Max Bet should be for $150. If your normal bet is for $200, then this Max Bet should be for $300… If your normal bet is 2% of bankroll, then this Max Bet should be for 3% of bankroll, etc. etc. PLEASE use this type of money management ALWAYS. If you bet like a degenerate gambler, YOU WILL LOSE like a degenerate gambler.
BOTTOM LINE: Revenge game for the NFC East lead. The Eagles thoroughly embarrassed the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving, 33-10. The situation was very different for that matchup. Dallas was coming off a Sunday night game in which their defense was on the field for 72 plays. They then had to turn around on an extra-short week and line up against the up-tempo Eagles offense. That Dallas defense was gassed and never stood a chance. Much different story this time around. Dallas played last Thursday, so they’ve had extra rest and prep time. This time it’s the Eagles who could be a bit gassed, as they had the tables turned on them last Sunday when Seattle’s offense ran a staggering 83 plays. I’m sure Dallas watched plenty of film of themselves getting pushed around on Thanksgiving, so I expect a MUCH better performance this time around. The defense should be fresher and the offensive line & Tony Romo should all be playing with a chip on their shoulders. They also got to watch film on how Seattle’s defense defended the Eagles offense. Obviously Dallas’ D isn’t of the same caliber as Seattle’s, but I expect some positive adjustments to be made. I really expect Romo & his offensive line to step up & be the difference in this game. MAX BET on DALLAS.