NFL Pick, Monday 9.22.14

I passed on Monday’s MLB card.  My only bet was a 3-Unit Max Bet on NFL Monday Night Football.  It was my first Monday night NFL bet this season.  My money was on the New York Jets.  I had them on the money line at -120.  I was very confident with this particular NFL pick, hence the 3-Unit wager.

I did not get to watch this game.  That’s probably a good thing.  Based on what I’ve been told by those who did watch the game, it was more a case of the Jets beating themselves with a little help from the officials.  Just hearing those sentiments makes me very glad I wasn’t able to tune in.

The following is the analysis my clients received with this play.

Love how this game sets up.  The public has seen the Jets barely beat the Raiders at home and then blow a huge lead in Green Bay (and the Packers are struggling).  They also just saw these Bears go into San Francisco on Sunday Night Football & rally with three fourth-quarter TDs to beat the 49ers.  To top it off, most know about the Jets’ secondary issues & just assume that Jay Cutler will carve up that Jets secondary on the way to a Bears win.  I don’t see it playing out that way.

 

One thing can help hide a weak secondary and that’s a strong pass rush.  And there aren’t too many coaches better at creating & dialing up blitzes than Jets coach Rex Ryan.  You can bet Ryan will have a solid gameplan in place to pressure Cutler & take the heat off his secondary.  And you know what happens when Cutler feels pressured.  Turnover-palooza.  On the flip side, the Jets have a very solid ground game and a mobile QB in Geno Smith.  They’ll be going against one of the league’s worst run defenses at this point, so I expect the Jets to control the line of scrimmage, move the chains & put enough points on the board to win this.  You can lay the -2 or whatever line your book has.  I just prefer to take the points out of the equation when the money line is this low.  MAX BET on the JETS.

The Jets outgained the Bears, 414-257. But a -2 turnover margin, including an interception returned for a touchdown, was too much for the Jets to overcome.

We won’t win every Max Bet, but we’ll win more often than not.  We’re at 71% on Max Bets over the last 10+ months and 71% on football Max Bets this season.  Tough to complain about that.

 

Updated: September 23, 2014 — 9:55 AM

The Author

Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant is the owner & handicapper of DBpicks.com. Dwayne provides members with sports betting tips (aka "picks" or "plays") in NFL, college football, NBA, NCAA basketball, and MLB.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.