Sometimes the best bets aren’t the more conventional ones. Thursday was a perfect example. I couldn’t find anything as far as full-game sides or totals that appealed to me. I was going to place a halftime bet on the NFL game, but I did not expect it to be 35-0 at that point. I was going to bet the second half Under, but 5Dimes.eu had that number at 20, which did not appeal to me.
So I began looking at MLB first-five inning and team total lines. Of all the MLB picks I could’ve released to my clients, I felt there was none stronger than playing the Angels team total Under 3 -130. My logic was simple. The Angels had just clinched the AL West title the night before and manager Mike Scioscia was intent on giving his starters the night off. He had already pulled Jered Weaver from his scheduled start, which confirmed the rest day for me before I even saw their lineup.
The Angels lineup was missing all the key bats, which is what I was counting on. I felt there was no way these second stringers were going to plate more than a run against Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has a strong history of allowing less than three runs in his starts against the Angels, so I firmly believed he would come up big again against the Angels B-team. Sure enough, Felix gave us seven shutout innings and the only Angels run came on a solo shot by Hank Conger off of closer Fernando Rodney in the bottom of the ninth.
The moral: Don’t just look at full-game sides & totals. First-five inning plays, second-half bets, team totals, etc. sometimes provide us with the best chance of cashing a ticket. Always be thorough in your research. If you’re serious about turning a long-term profit, you never leave any stone unturned.