Where Are They Now?
The Saints sit atop the NFC South at 7-2, one-half game ahead of Carolina. New Orleans has reeled off seven straight wins after an 0-2 start to the season. Its last two wins were very convincing — 30-10 at home against Tampa Bay two weeks ago, and 47-10 in Buffalo last Sunday.
The Redskins sit third in the NFC East at 4-5, a game behind Dallas and four games behind division-leading Philadelphia. Washington followed a stunning 17-14 win in Seattle two weeks ago with a 38-30 home loss to the Vikings last Sunday.
Buy Low / Sell High
We are selling high on the Saints off their seven straight wins, including those last two in blowout fashion. Many point out that the Saints’ defense is improved. It may be, the last five QBs they faced were: a now-benched Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo, Chicago rookie Mitch Trubisky, the Tampa Bay tag team of Jameis Winston and back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Green Bay back-up Brett Hundley. None of them has a Total QBR anywhere near the Top 10.
When the Saints defense faced a QB with a Top-10 Total QBR, they lost 29-19 in Minnesota (Case Keenum owns the league’s #3 Total QBR, believe it or not), and they lost 36-20 at home to the Patriots (Tom Brady’s Total QBR is #5 in the league). Now the Saints must face Washington’s Kirk Cousins, who owns the league’s #7 Total QBR. For comparison, the Saints’ Drew Brees is at #10.
We are also buying low on Washington off that home loss to Minnesota last Sunday. Washington was in a huge letdown spot coming off that big win in Seattle. But now the Redskins are in bounce-back mode, and they are getting healthier. Washington has proved to be a great play on the road off a loss, going 5-1 SU and ATS in that situation since the start of last season.
Your NFL Free Play for Sunday is…
Washington +8. Grab more than a TD with this live dog.
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