How to Bet During the September Playoff Races
With 135 games under their belts, teams no longer have any secrets. Everything is on the table by the time September rolls around. This takes much of the guesswork out of handicapping and is the reason that statistics-based bettors tend to have a big final month of the season.
Visiting Favorites in September
A couple of strong trends have emerged over the past several years that we can pounce on. The first is very simple: away favorites have been a profitable bet in September since 2012.
| Year | Record | ROI |
| 2018* | 9-5 | 17.79% |
| 2017 | 94-63 | 0.78% |
| 2016 | 88-58 | 5.34% |
| 2015 | 82-58 | 1.26% |
| 2014 | 73-51 | 3.76% |
| 2013 | 82-54 | 5.06% |
| 2012 | 85-50 | 11.59% |
* current as of 9/4/18 12:00 ET
You have to like what you see here. This system has been golden each year since 2012 and is off to a terrific start once again in 2018. Of course, we never want to bet a system without first intuitively understanding why it is profitable.
Late in the season, kids are back in school and fans of eliminated teams lose interest in attending games. These teams are likely playing in front of small crowds during their September home games, nullifying the home-field advantage.
Visiting favorites get a bit of a softer line because they are on the road. If the crowd is not a factor, playing on the road can actually be easier on the nerves than playing at home.
Bad Road Teams Against Winning Streak
Criteria for this system:
- Team is on the road in September
- Team has winning percentage less than 50% while opponent has winning percentage of 50% or greater
- Opponent is on 3+ game winning streak
| Year | Record | ROI |
| 2018* | 1-0 | 120% |
| 2017 | 14-17 | 26.65% |
| 2016 | 8-9 | 25.18% |
| 2015 | 13-11 | 38.58% |
| 2014 | 10-9 | 33.74% |
| 2013 | 11-17 | 6.61% |
* current as of 9/4/18 12:00 ET
First of all – wow! These numbers are staggering.
Let’s discuss why this system produces such amazing results. We are betting bad teams on the road against good teams, so naturally, we are receiving very good lines. The fact that the opposing team is on a winning streak also inflates the line a bit.
Rosters in September are riddled with injuries, bolstered by young prospects, and often disheveled after the trade deadline. This leads to much uncertainty and variability in results, making a September-winning streak much harder to accomplish.
While it usually is not a good idea to bet against streaks, the numbers show it is an effective strategy in September.
Don’t blow your MLB season winnings by making stupid bets in September. Stick to what the numbers tell you!
