Been a little over a week since I posted. Time to catch up and it’s mostly not good. Went 0-3 in the NFL last Sunday, 2-1 in college football this past Saturday, and a whopping 0-4 with a push yesterday. Below are my NFL bets from yesterday, including the analysis exactly as it was given to clients.
Sunday, October 12, 2014
1:00 pm ET
NFL
#253 PITTSBURGH ML +1
2 Units (Normal-sized Bet)
AFC North rematch from Week 1 when the Browns nearly pulled off a tremendous comeback in Pittsburgh. The Steelers cruised to a 27-3 halftime lead, only to have the Browns tie the game at 27 in the fourth quarter. It took a Shaun Suisham field goal on the final play to give the Steelers the 30-27 win. Everyone remembers that & everyone remembers the Browns coming from 25 points down to beat the Titans last Sunday. But the Browns aren’t facing Jake Locker or Charlie Whitehurst today. Ben Roethlisberger has been Cleveland’s nemesis for years, beating them 18 out of 19 times. Big Ben has been sharp this season and you can bet the Steelers will not be asleep at the wheel this time around.
1:00 pm ET
NFL
#260 MIAMI +3
2 Units (Normal-sized Bet)
On paper, this looks like a no-brainer bet on the Packers. Green Bay is a very public team and they’ve won their last two games by a combined score of 80-27. Throw in the thinking of “It’s Aaron Rodgers versus Ryan Tannehill” and Green Bay looks like the world’s easiest wager laying only a FG. I say it all the time, “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.”
This is a letdown spot for the Packers. Those last two wins came against division rivals Minnesota and Chicago. Miami has the type of defense (good pass rushers) that can disrupt Rodgers’ timing and make life difficult for the Packers offense. Miami has had extra time to prepare for this one, having last played two weeks ago in London. And let’s not forget that Miami head coach Joe Philbin was Green Bay’s OC from 2007 to 2011, so he knows Rodgers and the Packers offense very well.
The Miami offense should benefit greatly from the return of Mike Pouncey on the offensive line. The Dolphins should have success on the ground against a Packers defense that allows over 100 rushing yards on a regular basis. That opens up the passing game as well.
Miami and Tannehill own a win over Brady & the Patriots at home (Week 1), so a Miami win here will not surprise me. Green Bay is still a very good team. But they can be had, especially on the road. I’ll gladly grab the +3 with MIAMI at home.
1:00 pm ET
NFL
#262 MINNESOTA ML -130
2 Units (Normal-sized Bet)
Detroit has had their share of trouble in Minnesota, losing nine of their last 10 trips there. To make matters worse, superstar WR Calvin Johnson is listed as doubtful (ankle) and Reggie Bush (ankle) also will not suit up. That makes things much easier on an improved Vikings defense. Head coach Mike Zimmer is a very solid defensive-minded coach who has their stop unit playing very well. They should play well again today at home against the hobbled Lions offense.
The Vikings offense is now the Teddy Bridgewater Show. I like what I saw from this young man in his NFL debut against the Saints in New Orleans a couple weeks ago, nearly costing us a Max Bet on the Saints that day. The Lions have a very tough defensive front that will pressure Bridgewater. But his speed & agility will lead to some big plays outside the pocket. Minnesota has had extra time to prepare for this key divisional matchup, having last played the Thursday night game last week. I’m playing the money line here. MINNESOTA gets it done at home today.
8:30 pm ET
NFL
#275 NY GIANTS +3 (-115)
3 Units (MAX BET)
NOTE: Whenever we step out like this, I’m going to remind you what “Max Bet” means. It does NOT mean: bet your whole bankroll, bet your rent/mortgage payment, bet the car payment, etc. What it DOES mean is that you should bet 50% more on this play than on a normal 2-Unit play. So, if your normal 2-Unit bet is for $100, then this Max Bet should be for $150. If your normal 2-Unit bet is for $200, then this Max Bet should be for $300… If your normal bet is 2% of bankroll, then this Max Bet should be for 3% of bankroll, etc. etc. PLEASE use this type of money management ALWAYS. If you bet like a degenerate gambler, YOU WILL LOSE like a degenerate gambler.
Living in southeast PA, I hear about the Eagles ad nauseum. And their games are always on TV whether I want to watch them or not. No, I’m not a fan of the Eagles as I’m sure you can tell. I tend to stay away from betting their games, but every now & then an opportunity presents itself and I just can’t help myself. Such is the case tonight.
These Eagles have been the perfect example of teams winning games with smoke & mirrors. They’ve been the benefactors of defensive and special teams return TDs at a surprising rate. But even with those return TDs, they nearly blew a huge lead at home against the Rams last Sunday & they couldn’t beat the 49ers despite THREE such TDs. They have what I consider one good win this season and that was their Week 2 Monday night win over the Colts in Indy. Now they’re facing a tough division rival in the Giants.
The Giants and Eli Manning finally have their new offense clicking and that will spell trouble tonight for a bad Eagles defense that ranks 29th against the pass. Eli has speedy young WR Odell Beckham back on the field and they already had success last Sunday.
Nick Foles has regressed. He already has more INTs than he had all of last season and the Eagles offense has struggled for long periods of time. Some of that blame can be put on a porous offensive line that will have their hands full tonight. I always say these games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage and I expect the Giants to win that battle on both sides of the ball.
The Eagles luck runs out tonight. No smoke & mirrors. Just a NY GIANTS win and a MAX BET win for us. Note that I’m also betting 2 Units on the money line at +120.
8:30 pm ET
NFL
#275 NY GIANTS ML +120
2 Units (Normal-sized Bet)
Living in southeast PA, I hear about the Eagles ad nauseum. And their games are always on TV whether I want to watch them or not. No, I’m not a fan of the Eagles as I’m sure you can tell. I tend to stay away from betting their games, but every now & then an opportunity presents itself and I just can’t help myself. Such is the case tonight.
These Eagles have been the perfect example of teams winning games with smoke & mirrors. They’ve been the benefactors of defensive and special teams return TDs at a surprising rate. But even with those return TDs, they nearly blew a huge lead at home against the Rams last Sunday & they couldn’t beat the 49ers despite THREE such TDs. They have what I consider one good win this season and that was their Week 2 Monday night win over the Colts in Indy. Now they’re facing a tough division rival in the Giants.
The Giants and Eli Manning finally have their new offense clicking and that will spell trouble tonight for a bad Eagles defense that ranks 29th against the pass. Eli has speedy young WR Odell Beckham back on the field and they already had success last Sunday.
Nick Foles has regressed. He already has more INTs than he had all of last season and the Eagles offense has struggled for long periods of time. Some of that blame can be put on a porous offensive line that will have their hands full tonight. I always say these games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage and I expect the Giants to win that battle on both sides of the ball.
The Eagles luck runs out tonight. No smoke & mirrors. Just a NY GIANTS win.
The worst day of NFL bets I can ever remember having. As crappy as this skid has been, I’ve been doing this long enough to know a big win streak is coming. It always does. Time to get to work on that.
