I had been very quiet this bowl season before yesterday. I had made only one bowl bet so far and it lost. I’m not one to bet on games just because they’re on TV or just because they’re bowl games. I bet when my work indicates a strong chance of success, regardless of the nature or timing of the game. But Saturday was a day when three bowl games really stood out for me. We ended up with a 3-0 sweep and it was much needed. Below is my college football bowl betting recap from yesterday, including the analysis that was posted in the Members Area and in emails sent to clients.
1:00 pm ET
College Football — Military Bowl
#227 VIRGINIA TECH +3 (-115)
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: I love backing the better defensive teams in football games. Make that defensively superior team the underdog and I will always take a serious look at grabbing the points. Everyone knows VT’s offense is subpar to say the least, while the Bearcats offense is solid behind QB Gunner Kiel. But Cincinnati’s defense is severely lacking, allowing 6 yards per rushing attempt this season. The pass defense is nothing to write home about either, but it’s that run defense that will keep the Hokies offense moving the chains. The Hokies will make more stops than Cincinnati, so I’m grabbing the FG with VIRGINIA TECH.
2:00 pm ET
College Football — Sun Bowl
#229 DUKE +7.5
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: After getting as high as #7 in the playoff rankings, I have to believe the Sun Devils are disappointed being in this game. ASU was in a similar situation last season when they ended up in the Holiday Bowl and lost by 14 as 14-point favorites against Texas Tech. Duke was a double-digit dog when they nearly beat a Texas A&M team in last season’s Chick-fil-A Bowl that was in a similar situation as ASU. The Aggies needed a fourth-quarter rally to escape with a 52-48 win. Duke is a scrappy team that will give the Sun Devils all they can handle. I have ASU winning by a FG, but a lack of motivation could easily swing this game Duke’s way. Getting more than a TD looks like a very solid wager, so DUKE is the play.
4:30 pm ET
College Football — Pinstripe Bowl
#233 Penn State +3
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: The Nittany Lions own the nation’s #2 defense. You know how I love getting points with the better defense, especially a dominant defense like that of PSU. Yes, the Lions offense is poor, but that defense will create better field position and tilt the game in their favor. PSU also has a very solid kicker in Sam Ficken, who connected on 82% of his FG tries this season with a long of 50 yards. BC has used three different kickers, with Alex Howell being their main kicker. Howell hasn’t made a kick since November 1st and is just 5-for-11 on the season. That could very well be the difference here. Take PENN STATE.
