TCU-Texas Game Preview
We are finally getting into the meat of the college football season. Teams can no longer use the “it’s still early” excuse when they lose a game they should not have lost. Conference play is beginning and playoff race storylines are starting to get tossed around in the media.
At this point in the season, we know enough about teams that we can make informed decisions but there is enough variability that the Vegas lines inevitably have some inaccuracies.
I have my eye on one particular game this weekend which provides excellent betting value on top of being an entertaining matchup that I look forward to watching. Let’s take a look!
#17 TCU @ Texas – 9/22/18
This interstate rivalry is sure to have folks in Texas fighting on Twitter, but college football bettors everywhere should take a look at this game.
TCU enters with a 2-1 record after holding their own in a loss to Ohio State last weekend. We cannot look upon TCU unfavorably for losing by 12 points to the Buckeyes as the Scarlet and Gray look to be playoff-bound once again.
The Horned Frogs have easily handled their other two opponents, which is no surprise considering they were Southern and SMU.
The Longhorns also enter the game with a 2-1 record but have looked far more unreliable. After losing to a sub-par Maryland opponent, Texas squeaked by Tulsa before handing USC a crushing 37-14 whooping.
Neither of these teams has a super important game next week, meaning that both sides should have their full attention on the task at hand. The most talented team should win. The key word in each of these sentences is “should”.
TCU and Texas Recent History
The Horned Frogs have walked away victorious from each of these teams’ past four meetings dating back to 2014.
| Year | Location | TCU Score | Texas Score | Spread |
| 2014 | Texas | 48 | 10 | TCU -7 |
| 2015 | TCU | 50 | 7 | TCU -16.5 |
| 2016 | Texas | 31 | 9 | Texas -3 |
| 2017 | TCU | 24 | 7 | TCU -7.5 |
| 2018 | Texas | TCU -3.5 |
What is very interesting to note is that TCU has crushed the spread in each of these matchups. Not just beat it – crushed it!
With the spread at a mere -3.5 this year, one of two things is going on. Either Vegas has not learned their lesson or Texas is better than we thought.
Betting Analysis on TCU-Texas
Surprisingly, I am going to put my sports betting eggs in the first basket and accept Vegas’ dare to take the -3.5. I believe that coming off two wins and playing at home against a team coming off a loss has led the public to jump on the Longhorns.
If there is one thing we know as savvy sports bettors, it is that when the public loves one side we have no choice but to bet the other.
TCU has a clear talent and athleticism advantage. Any ESPN analyst can tell you that. There must be some reason that the line is only -3.5. It seems like low-hanging fruit, but I betting that public is wrong and am going all in on TCU this week.
