Had a pretty good Sunday going 3-1 overall for +$480 (based on my ratings). That includes a 2-0 +$500 day in the NFL and a 1-1 day in the NBA for -$20. Below are the actual picks with writeups, exactly as they were released to clients. As you will see, I was dead wrong about the Panthers-Saints game yet we still cashed that ticket. As always, these are part of my guaranteed picks subscriptions.
1:00 pm ET
NFL
#153 PITTSBURGH +3.5 (-125)
$300 (MAX BET)
NOTE: Whenever we step out like this, I’m going to remind you what “Max Bet” means. It does NOT mean: bet your whole bankroll, bet your rent/mortgage payment, bet the car payment, etc. What it DOES mean is that you should bet 50% more on this play than on a normal play. So, if your normal bet is for $100, then this Max Bet should be for $150. If your normal bet is for $200, then this Max Bet should be for $300… If your normal bet is 2% of bankroll, then this Max Bet should be for 3% of bankroll, etc. etc. PLEASE use this type of money management ALWAYS. If you bet like a degenerate gambler, YOU WILL LOSE like a degenerate gambler.
BOTTOM LINE: The Steelers home loss to the Saints last weekend was much worse than the 35-32 final score indicates. Pittsburgh has shown a strong tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition. Facing their rivals, the division-leading Bengals, I expect Pittsburgh to bounce back with a strong performance in this one. The Steelers will all but eliminate themselves from any chance of winning the AFC North if they lose this one and the last thing they want is to be stuck in the middle of that huge mess otherwise known as the AFC Wildcard race. Pittsburgh is getting healthy on defense with the return of Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor & Ryan Shazier. The Bengals just won three straight road games, but those wins were against the Saints, Houston & Tampa Bay. The only winning team they beat this season is Baltimore. We have the better QB in this matchup and he has two great weapons in WR Antonio Brown & RB Le’Veon Bell. I expect Big Ben to lead the Steelers to a much-needed W here. MAX BET on PITTSBURGH at +3 or better.
1:00 pm ET
NFL
#161-162 OVER 50 Carolina at New Orleans
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: Carolina has gone OVER the total in each of their last five road games, allowing 38 points per game in the process. None of those five games were played indoors. The Saints have gone OVER in four of their last five home contests and Drew Brees & company appear to be on the rise. Carolina is making changes in their secondary. The last thing you want to do is be making changes like that with the Saints up next. I’m expecting about 55 points in this one. I’m expecting the Saints to get a huge lead and then play loose and give up some garbage-time points. I like the OVER at 51 or better.
3:35 pm ET
NBA
#803 DENVER NUGGETS +5.5
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: The Nuggets had Saturday off to stew about their embarrassing 30-point loss in Washington. Atlanta is at the other end of the spectrum, as they have to be feeling fat & happy coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins at Miami and Brooklyn. Given these circumstances, I expect the Nuggets to be the much more motivated team this afternoon. It’s not always about betting the better team, although Denver has played pretty well since a rough start to the season. Sometimes it’s more about the situation and I’ve made a lot of money on the NBA over the years using this method. I’m grabbing the points with DENVER.
7:35 pm ET
NBA
#810 DALLAS MAVERICKS -9
$200 (Normal Bet)
BOTTOM LINE: The Bucks are coming off a huge 24-point win over Miami in which they shot 56.5% from the field. What goes up must come down. The Mavs are off a embarrassing 12-point home loss to Phoenix. It was Dallas’ first game back at home off a four-game road trip. The last game of that trip was a 2-point win over these Bucks on Wednesday. Dallas achieved that win despite having played a 132-129 overtime game the night before in Chicago. With a day of rest this time and off an embarrassing home loss, I expect the Mavs to roll in this one. I’m on DALLAS.
