Learn 3 Easy Rules to Bet NFL Games Intelligently
Struggling to turn a consistent profit with your NFL betting? Use these 3 expert tips to avoid common mistakes and get yourself back in the black.
1) Make the Bet YOU Want
Do you consider yourself an intelligent person? Then act like it.
Everyone always talks about 52.4%. This is the magic threshold you need to reach IF you are only betting point spreads. But who says we can only bet spreads?
Stick to what you predict! If you feel that Tom Brady is about to go off, bet the over on a Brady prop bet, not the Patriots spread.
If you correctly predict that he plays well, you will win your prop bet. Many things must fall in your favor, however, if you are to win a Patriots point spread bet.
Likewise, if you are looking at the Seahawks’ defense and thinking that they are really going to smother Jacksonville, you are better off taking the under on Jacksonville points than the Seahawks point spread.
Remember, you predicted that Seattle’s defense will play well. You did not confirm that their offense or special teams would carry their weight.
Now if you love Seattle’s chances to win, by all means bet the moneyline or spread. If you are only high on their defense, however, there are better options for your money.
Heed this advice: Stick to what you predict and make the bets YOU want to make.
2) DON’T Undervalue Replacement Players
In many sports (especially in college), injuries can really alter a team’s game plan and chances of winning. In a league as deep as the NFL, however, replacement players will not hinder a team’s efforts nearly as severely.
Stars do not produce every single week in football and backups have their moments all the time. If a team’s best playmaker is injured, do not write off that team. Even he is a star, the drop off between his talent and that of his backup is usually exaggerated by the media and fans.
There are 22 players on the football field at any given time. The loss of one or two good players is not going to have nearly the same effect as it would in a sport with relatively few substitutions, like NBA basketball.
3) Take Plus Odds on 50/50 Bets
Imagine we were flipping a coin and I offered you +110 odds on tails. You would accept that deal in a heartbeat. You are getting plus odds on a 50/50 bet which means you will not lose in the long run.
These types of opportunities appear all the time in football. Obviously, you will do pretty well for yourself if you can recognize them. Say you are handicapping an upcoming Broncos-Falcons game and you determine it is a straight toss-up – a 50/50 bet. You do not see much, if anything, separating these two clubs.
Next, you check the moneyline and notice that the Broncos are +110 while the Falcons are -115. Bingo! You have determined this game to be a 50/50 toss-up and yet you can receive plus odds on the Broncos. Pounce on that all day.
Some would shy away from betting this game because they do not feel strongly that the Broncos will win. Savvy bettors know that getting paid 11 to 10 makes this a +EV bet, just like getting paid plus money on a coin toss is a winning proposition.
Prove you are an intelligent NFL bettor. Put what you have learned to the test. We will see you on the top!