I don’t bet every Monday night football game. But I didn’t need to crunch numbers or analyze the specifics of the Patriots’ visit to Kansas City last night to know I was betting on the game. All I did was look at the betting line and I knew where my money was going. I ended up betting and releasing two NFL picks to my clients on this game, which I’ll get to in a bit.
The Patriots were just a 3-point favorite and they were bet down to -2.5 at some books. It had to take some big money to get the books to come off the very key number of 3. I don’t have exact numbers, but I know the public was largely on the Patriots. It sure looked to me like the books were just begging for the public to line up and bet on the Patriots. They didn’t disappoint.
Most recreational bettors hear the name “Patriots” and automatically think of the dominant team of past years. While Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are still in place, the team is not the dominant force it once was. That much was proven last night, as Kansas City drilled the Patriots, 41-14. Brady threw two interceptions and was pulled from the game. The Chiefs drew off the energy of their raucous crowd and were never really challenged.
If the public wasn’t so enamored with the Patriots franchise, maybe they would’ve noticed New England struggling to beat the Raiders in Foxboro last Sunday. The heavily-favored Patriots managed just one touchdown and 16 points in the win. Simply put, the warning signs were there.
We cashed 4.6 Units of profit on the Chiefs. We had 2 Units on Kansas City +3 and another 2 Units on the money line, which was Kansas City +130. This game was the perfect example of the old adage, “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.” It looked so easy to take the Patriots laying less than a field goal. And that made my betting decision really easy.