I only made one bet on Saturday. No NBA. No NCAA basketball. Just one college football pick was released to clients. Below is the college football pick and writeup that was given to my clients.
7:45 pm ET
#117 KANSAS STATE +7
BOTTOM LINE: This is a rare type of bet for me, as I’m usually looking to back the home team in these college football night games (like Alabama last Saturday). But I just see too many reasons to like Kansas State at this price. Bill Snyder always has his team ready and they shine in the role of the underdog. As I said in a writeup several weeks ago when we cashed with K-State over Oklahoma State, the Wildcats are such a fundamentally sound football team. They’re one of the least penalized teams in the nation and they don’t turn the ball over very often. While Baylor has the better offense in this contest, I give the edge to the Wildcats on both defense and special teams. I think K-State has a huge special teams edge in this one. And while Baylor gets all the press for their offense, I think it’s interesting that Kansas State QB Jake Waters actually has a better Efficiency Rating (154.9) than Baylor’s Bryce Petty (153.0). The Bears have made a living beating up on a weak schedule, but they haven’t even been impressive doing that lately. I expect Petty (concussion-like symptoms) to be under center for Baylor, but one good shot could land him out of this game. Even if he starts and finishes this game, will he be 100%? There’s a good chance he may be a little off. And even a 100% Petty is going to find himself in a war tonight. I know Baylor is at home tonight, the ESPN Gameday Crew is there, and the Bears could really use a convincing win to jump into a playoff spot. But that doesn’t mean they get it. I think the Wildcats have more edges in this contest and actually have a good chance to get the W. At this price, I have to make a play on KANSAS STATE.
Obviously this game didn’t turn out like I had hoped. Kansas State got behind 14-0 and never really recovered. This will serve as a reminder as to why I like backing the home team in these college football night games.